The 2025 NCAA Tournament is here, bringing prime opportunities for bracket-busting upsets. Here are the most promising underdogs and likely upsets for March Madness first-round games.

Most Likely Bracket Upsets:

• #12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis

  • Rams are betting favorites
  • Top-3 in Mountain West scoring offense and defense

• #10 Arkansas over #7 Kansas

  • Strong SEC defensive ranking
  • Well-equipped to challenge Jayhawks

• #12 UC San Diego over #5 Michigan

  • Impressive 30-4 record
  • #1 in Big West scoring defense

High-Seed Upset Potential:

• #13 Akron (+750) over Arizona

  • MAC's top scoring offense (84.6 PPG)
  • Can match Arizona's offensive output
  • 11.6% implied win probability

• #14 Troy (+500) over Kentucky

  • Top-3 Sun Belt defensive team
  • Kentucky struggles defensively
  • 16.67% implied win probability

• #15 Bryant (+1250) over MSU

  • American East scoring leaders (86.4 PPG)
  • 7.41% implied win probability

Best First-Round Betting Values:

New Mexico (+150)

• Mountain West's top scoring team
• 34.7% from three-point range
• Fast-paced style (4th in KenPom tempo)
• Facing slumping Marquette

Grand Canyon (+450)

• WAC scoring leaders (79.9 PPG)
• 18.18% implied win probability
• High-scoring matchup vs Maryland

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