March Madness 2025: Baylor vs Mississippi State Picks and Betting Preview
The #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) face the #9 Baylor Bears (19-14) in NCAA Tournament first-round action. Mississippi State enters as 1-point favorites with a total of 144.5 points. Tip-off is set for 12:15pm ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC on CBS.
Basketball player in Celtics uniform
Key Betting Insights:
- Baylor opened as 1.5-point favorites before line movement favored Mississippi State
- Bears drawing 64% of spread bets and 78% of money wagered
- Mississippi State has lost 5 of their last 7 games
- Baylor dropped 5 of their final 8 contests
Why Bet Baylor (+100 ML):
- Higher Net and offensive ratings despite lower seed
- Four double-digit scorers led by VJ Edgecombe (projected top-10 draft pick)
- Strong three-point shooting team (top third nationally)
- Mississippi State ranks 342nd in three-point defense
- Coach Scott Drew is 13-9 ATS as Tournament favorite
- Tournament experience with transfers from Final Four teams
Mississippi State's Challenges:
- Poor perimeter defense allowing 9+ threes per game
- Only shoots 31% from three-point range
- Ranks 237th in opponent effective field goal percentage
- Only wins recently were against struggling LSU
- 19-1 when holding teams under 80 points but faces strong Baylor offense
The Pick: Baylor Bears moneyline (+100)
Baylor's offensive firepower and three-point shooting should exploit Mississippi State's defensive weaknesses. The Bears' Tournament experience and coaching advantage make them the value play as slight underdogs.