UNC vs SDSU First Four Preview: Tar Heels Favored Against Defensive-Minded Aztecs
North Carolina and San Diego State clash in a compelling First Four matchup as 11-seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. While UNC brings raw talent and NBA prospects, SDSU counters with tournament experience and elite defense.
Player in blue basketball jersey
Game Analysis:
- KenPom Rankings: UNC #33, SDSU #46
- Spread: UNC -4.5 (opened -3.5)
- SDSU leads nation in block percentage
- Aztecs rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency
- UNC struggles against quality opponents (1-12 in Quad 1 games)
Key Matchup Factors:
- SDSU's defensive prowess vs UNC's rim attacks
- Tempo battle: UNC 34th in pace vs SDSU 245th
- Return of 7-foot Magoon Gwath (Mountain West DPOY)
- UNC's limited 3-point shooting (228th nationally in attempt rate)
Best Betting Value: San Diego State +4.5
- Elite defense matches up well against UNC's style
- Sharp money trending toward SDSU (23% of ML handle)
- Defensive tempo control favors Aztecs
Top Prop Bet: Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 Assists (-114)
- Averages 6.0 assists per game
- Ranks 18th nationally in assist rate
- Cleared this number in 9 of last 12 games
- Expected drive-and-kick opportunities against SDSU's defense
Current Odds (BetMGM):
- UNC Moneyline: -198
- SDSU Moneyline: +164
- Total: 142.5 (opened 140.5)
- Spread: UNC -4.5 (-110)
Player Props:
- Points Leaders: RJ Davis (16.5), Nick Boyd (15.5)
- Rebounds Leader: Ven-Allen Lubin (8.5)
- Assists Leaders: Nick Boyd and Elliot Cadeau (4.5)