Trudeau Steps Down as Canadian PM Amid Political Storm and Plummeting Polls
Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada, triggering significant political developments heading into 2025.
The resignation follows the December departure of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland over disagreements regarding economic policies and handling of potential 25% tariffs threatened by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump concerning border security.
Smiling Justin Trudeau portrait
Trudeau's popularity has plummeted to 22% according to Angus Reid's "Trudeau Tracker" as of December 24. Liberal caucuses across Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada had called for his resignation.
The minority Liberal government faces strong opposition from the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre, who lead polls at 44.2% with a projected 227 seats. Any non-confidence vote would require support from Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party, which currently supports the Liberals through a coalition agreement.
Potential successors to lead the Liberal Party include:
- Mark Carney (former Bank of England governor)
- Chrystia Freeland
- Melanie Joly (Minister of Foreign Affairs)
- Dominic LeBlanc (current Finance Minister)
Mark Carney emerges as a strong contender, offering fresh leadership outside Trudeau's inner circle and potential economic policy reset.
Current prediction markets indicate:
- 61% chance of an election by April
- 91% likelihood of Poilievre becoming next Prime Minister
- 1% probability of a successful no-confidence motion in 2024
- Conservatives favored at -2000 odds versus Liberals at +900 (BetMGM)
If Parliament is prorogued during the Liberal leadership campaign, it could delay any non-confidence vote and potentially push a national election to summer 2025. This would also impact pending legislation, including proposed national advertising standards for sports betting.
