Canadian Election Odds: Trudeau's Leadership in Crisis as Finance Minister Freeland Resigns
Chrystia Freeland, Canada's Finance Minister, resigned on December 16, 2024, following disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over a proposed cabinet shuffle, triggering political turbulence in Ottawa.
Trudeau and man at meeting table
The resignation came amid mounting tensions over U.S. trade relations, with former President Trump threatening 25% tariffs on Canadian goods upon his return to office in January. Freeland criticized Trudeau's "costly political gimmicks" in her resignation letter posted on X, citing fundamental disagreements about Canada's economic direction.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser also resigned, while Dominic LeBlanc was quickly sworn in as the new Finance Minister. The government managed to table its economic statement, promising $1.3 billion for border security over six years.
Current polling shows the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, commanding 43% support, while Trudeau's Liberals trail at 21%. Projections suggest Conservatives could win up to 233 seats in Parliament, securing a majority government. Trudeau's approval rating stands at just 28%.
Betting markets heavily favor a Conservative victory in the next election, scheduled for October 20, 2025:
- FanDuel: Conservatives (-1000), Liberals (+1900), NDP (+6000)
- BetVictor: Conservatives (-1000), Liberals (+500), NDP (+3500)
- BetMGM: Conservatives (-2000), Liberals (+800), NDP (+2500)
The NDP, currently supporting the Liberal minority government, has indicated "all options are on the table," potentially threatening the stability of Trudeau's administration.
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