The betting public has had approximately 72 hours to place their bets on March Madness first-round games, with billions of dollars already wagered across North America. Here's a comprehensive analysis of the public's betting trends for the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round.

Key Betting Trends:

The Over is currently the most popular bet in 9 of 30 first-round matchups. Notable over bets include:

• Drake vs Missouri: Over 132.5 (KenPom: 136)
• UNCW vs Texas Tech: Over 143.5 (KenPom: 147)
• Creighton vs Louisville: 144.5 (KenPom: 147.5)
• McNeese vs Clemson: Over 133.5 (KenPom: 136)
• Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's: Over 135.5 (KenPom: 138)

Underdog Betting Trends:

• Six underdogs at +750 or longer are receiving majority of ATS (Against The Spread) handle
• Recent tournament history supports this strategy:
  • 2024: #14 Oakland (+575) beat #3 Kentucky
  • 2023: #15 Princeton (+700) defeated #2 Arizona
  • 2022: #15 St Peter's (+1400) reached Elite Eight

Most Popular Public Pick: Arkansas (+4.5) vs Kansas is receiving 94% of ATS handle, the largest split on the board. Kansas enters the tournament having lost 5 of their last 9 games, though they still rank 21st in KenPom ratings compared to Arkansas at 40th.

Historical Context: The discrepancy between KenPom projections and listed totals suggests bookmakers are setting lower totals for tournament games compared to regular season, similar to NBA playoffs.

Recent trends indicate increasing public confidence in major underdogs, supported by several significant upsets in recent tournaments.

Note: These betting percentages reflect handle distribution as of 10:00 am ET, March 19, with two First Four games still pending to complete the 64-team field.

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