Las Vegas locals casino operators face mixed prospects in 2025, following varied performance in 2024. The segment expects modest growth, with key operators adjusting to market dynamics and new competition.

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli notes that 2024 brought significant changes, particularly with Red Rock Resorts' Durango Casino & Resort opening in Southwest Las Vegas. The new venue impacted both competitors and Red Rock's existing properties while spurring increased promotional activity among independent casinos.

Operators experienced lower EBITDAR and same-store sales in 2024, with rising operating costs affecting performance. While Boyd Gaming showed positive stock movement, Golden Entertainment and Red Rock Resorts saw declines.

Looking ahead to 2025, Boyd Gaming and Red Rock Resorts show particular promise, contingent on revenue growth exceeding expectations. Durango Casino, planning significant expansion in 2025, projects approximately $340 million in annual net revenue, including $225 million in casino revenue.

Workforce trends present both opportunities and challenges. While 2014-2019 saw employment growth matching revenue increases at 3% CAGR, post-2019 shows revenue CAGR at 5.1% against just 0.9% job growth. This disparity raises concerns about sustainability, particularly with Durango's impact driving gaming revenue per workforce member up 4.2% over the past year.

The Durango property notably doesn't significantly impact gaming venues along the Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas, where Boyd and other Red Rock casinos operate, suggesting potential for balanced market growth across different areas.

For investors, market performance in 2025 will likely depend on overall gaming revenue growth, with consensus forecasts potentially proving optimistic without substantial market expansion.

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