KenPom's Top March Madness Betting Predictions 2025
Based on KenPom's analytics, here are the most valuable March Madness betting opportunities for the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round:
Three Clippers players gesture leftward
Top KenPom Picks for First Round:
- Oklahoma Moneyline (+190) vs UConn
- KenPom projects just a one-point UConn win
- Oklahoma has 48% win probability per KenPom vs 34.48% implied by odds
- Current spread: UConn -5.5
- UConn's championship odds at +8000 suggest less dominance than previous years
- Ole Miss (+102) vs North Carolina
- KenPom projects 77-76 Ole Miss victory
- Gives Rebels 54% win chance vs 49.5% implied by odds
- Line opened at North Carolina -1.5 despite being lower seed
Notable Total Mismatches (KenPom vs Current Lines):
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech
- Current total: 142.5
- KenPom projection: 147 (81-66 TTU)
- Difference: +4.5 points
Other Significant Total Discrepancies:
- New Mexico vs Marquette: 153.5 vs 150 KenPom
- Drake vs Missouri: 132.5 vs 136 KenPom
- Arkansas vs Kansas: 145.5 vs 142 KenPom
All odds from DraftKings as of 11:51 am ET, March 19, 2025. Lines subject to change.
The biggest value appears in games where KenPom's projections significantly differ from current betting lines, particularly in the Oklahoma-UConn matchup where analytics suggest the odds severely undervalue the underdog's chances.