How Weather Conditions Impact Your NFL Betting Strategy

How Weather Conditions Impact Your NFL Betting Strategy

By Michael Harrison

January 23, 2025 at 01:30 PM

Weather plays a crucial role in NFL betting as it's the only major sport played outdoors in all conditions. Here's what you need to know about weather's impact on NFL betting:

Rain Impact:

  • Makes games sloppier with reduced passing and traction
  • Usually lowers game totals by several points
  • Benefits underdogs by neutralizing superior teams' advantages
  • Consider betting the under and underdogs against the spread

Wind Impact:

  • Becomes significant at 15+ mph
  • Can severely limit passing games
  • Makes under bets more attractive
  • Teams may abandon passing for run-heavy approach

Snow Impact:

  • Rare but highly disruptive
  • Strongly suggests betting the under
  • Avoid player props and fantasy players
  • Creates unpredictable game conditions

Player Prop Opportunities:

  • Target running back overs in bad weather
  • Expect increased rush attempts when passing is limited
  • Weather conditions can create value in prop markets

Indoor Stadium Teams (No Weather Impact):

  • Dallas
  • Los Angeles
  • Minnesota
  • Detroit
  • Houston
  • Arizona
  • Las Vegas
  • Indianapolis
  • New Orleans
  • Atlanta

Remember to always check weather forecasts before placing NFL bets, as conditions can significantly impact game outcomes and betting opportunities.

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