Flutter Entertainment lowered its 2024 financial outlook due to unfavorable NFL betting outcomes, with shares dropping nearly 2% in after-hours trading. The company revised its 2024 revenue forecast to $5.78 billion, down from the previous $6.05-6.25 billion range, while EBITDA is expected to be $205 million below the earlier $505 million midpoint.

The adjustment comes as NFL favorites won 71.8% of games through December 31, 2024 - the highest rate in nearly 20 years. For Q4, Flutter projects EBITDA of $161 million on sales of $1.59 billion.

Despite these short-term challenges, Flutter maintains a strong long-term outlook. The company is executing a $350 million share buyback program through Q1 2025 and projects the global regulated gaming market to reach $368 billion by 2030, representing an 8% CAGR.

Flutter's diversified international presence, particularly in Australia and Europe, helps offset US headwinds. The company reports stronger-than-expected performance in UK/Ireland markets, with 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA tracking 1% and 2% above previous guidance respectively.

The company emphasizes that current NFL betting outcomes are "transitory" and don't impact their long-term growth trajectory, which includes a projected 2027 revenue of $21 billion at a 14% three-year CAGR.

This update may signal broader industry impacts, as similar challenges likely affect other major sportsbook operators. BetMGM is scheduled to report 2024 results on February 4, which could provide further insight into industry-wide trends.

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