Duke vs Louisville ACC Championship Odds: Depleted Blue Devils Still Favored Despite Flagg Injury
The Duke Blue Devils (30-3) face the Louisville Cardinals (27-6) in the ACC Tournament championship game on Saturday, March 15, at 8:30 pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. Duke opens as 6.5-point favorites despite missing star player Cooper Flagg.
Player Knueppel dribbling basketball in action
Duke enters after narrowly defeating North Carolina 74-71 in the semifinals, where they nearly squandered a 21-point halftime lead. The Blue Devils are playing without Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG), who suffered a serious ankle injury in their quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech. Kon Knueppel (14.2 PPG) has stepped up, leading the team with 17 points in the semifinal victory.
Louisville comes in riding an 11-game winning streak after impressive tournament wins over Stanford (75-73) and Clemson (76-73). The Cardinals have engineered a remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Pat Kelsey, going from last place in 2024 to an 18-2 conference record this season. Terrence Edwards leads Louisville's attack, averaging 16.1 PPG.
Key Factors:
- Duke won the regular season matchup in December
- Louisville is 5-5 against top-50 KenPom teams
- The Cardinals are seeking their first ACC Tournament title
- Duke's moneyline (-285) implies 74.03% win probability
- Louisville returns as +230 underdogs
Analysis: Duke showed vulnerability without Flagg against UNC, nearly collapsing in the second half. While still talented, the Blue Devils aren't the same powerhouse without their Wooden Award favorite. Louisville's momentum and recent form make them an attractive underdog pick.
Recommended Pick: Louisville moneyline (+235)
The value lies with the Cardinals, who have evolved significantly since their December loss to Duke and are catching the Blue Devils at an optimal time without their star player.