FanDuel's parent company Flutter Entertainment warned investors about lower Q4 earnings due to customer-friendly NFL outcomes, and analysts believe DraftKings likely faced similar challenges.

Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley estimates DraftKings' Q4 EBITDA could be impacted by $60-80 million, as NFL favorites won over 70% of games and covered spreads at nearly 54% - one of the highest rates in Super Bowl history.

However, DraftKings may have fared better than FanDuel during Q4 2023 due to several factors:

• Strong performance from the Tyson-Paul fight sponsorship
• Avoiding a major payout from a +4891 parlay that hit on FanDuel
• Less exposure to unfavorable outcomes during FanDuel's Netflix NFL Christmas games

Industry experts note two positive aspects:

1. The unusually high win rate for NFL favorites is unlikely to repeat next season
2. Most recreational US bettors typically struggle with sports betting, suggesting potential recovery during playoffs and other sports seasons

Despite these temporary setbacks, analysts view any weakness in gaming stocks as a buying opportunity. Morningstar analyst Dan Wasiolek maintains a $275 fair value estimate for Flutter, citing the company's strong brand position and risk management capabilities.

The impact appears to be transitory, with Flutter seeing beneficial sports betting outcomes in markets outside the US, contributing over $100 million in revenue and approximately $30 million in adjusted EBITDA during the period.

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