Currently ranked 4th in the CFP standings, the Ohio State Buckeyes face a crucial three-game stretch that will determine their playoff fate. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of their chances:

Michigan State Game

• Buckeyes are -19 favorites
• 90% probability to win
• MSU's worst-ranked FBS pass defense faces Ohio State's elite passing attack
• Most favorable matchup of remaining schedule

Michigan Game

• Expected line around -8.5 to -9 points
• Approximately 77% chance to win
• Game takes place in Ann Arbor
• Key rivalry matchup with playoff implications

Big Ten Championship (Likely vs Wisconsin)

• Projected -15.5 point spread
• 85% probability to win
• Neutral site game
• Wisconsin brings one of country's top defenses

Mathematical Probability Breakdown:

• Chance to win all three games: 59%
• Overall CFP qualification probability: 60%

Alternative Scenarios:

• Potential path exists even with one loss
• Would require:
  • Another Alabama loss
  • Cincinnati loss
  • Two-loss champions in ACC, Pac-12, and Big 12

This three-game gauntlet represents one of college football's toughest remaining schedules, with each game significantly impacting Ohio State's playoff aspirations.

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