Las Vegas Strip casino operators should prepare for slower revenue growth in 2025, with non-gaming revenue expected to face particular challenges. Several factors contribute to this projected slowdown.

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli forecasts a 0.1% decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a more substantial 2.4% drop in net revenue, primarily due to reduced non-gaming sales. The challenging comparisons to 2024, especially with the Super Bowl impact in Q1, will likely create early headwinds.

Key Gaming Segment Projections for 2025:

• Slots: Modest contraction expected despite healthy handle rates
• Non-baccarat table games: Stable hold rates with slight year-over-year decline
• Baccarat: Low double-digit revenue decline anticipated
• RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): Expected to decrease by low to mid-single digits

Major operators MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment have already seen stock declines of 21% and 22.18% respectively year-to-date, suggesting markets have partially factored in these challenging forecasts.

Property closures at the Mirage and Tropicana, along with planned renovations at MGM Grand, are not expected to significantly impact overall Strip supply and demand dynamics. Despite these headwinds, Las Vegas maintains a robust event calendar that should help sustain visitor interest through 2025.

These projections indicate a period of market normalization rather than decline, with operators needing to adjust strategies to maintain profitability in a more challenging environment.

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