Is the NBA Draft Lottery Rigged? Examining the Biggest Conspiracy Theories

Is the NBA Draft Lottery Rigged? Examining the Biggest Conspiracy Theories

By Michael Harrison

March 5, 2025 at 06:18 PM

The NBA Draft Lottery has long been subject to conspiracy theories questioning its legitimacy. Here's a comprehensive look at the most compelling evidence and notable coincidences:

The Frozen Envelope Theory (1985)

  • First-ever NBA lottery resulted in the New York Knicks winning Patrick Ewing
  • Rumors claim the Knicks' envelope was frozen to help Commissioner David Stern identify it
  • A visible bent corner on New York's envelope added to suspicions
  • The NBA wanted Ewing in the large New York market

The LeBron James Era

  • Cleveland won the 2003 lottery to draft hometown star LeBron James
  • After James left in 2010, the Cavaliers won three more lotteries in four years:
    • 2011: Won with 1.7% odds (Kyrie Irving)
    • 2013: Won with third-best odds (Anthony Bennett)
    • 2014: Won with ninth-best odds (Andrew Wiggins)
  • These picks helped convince James to return to Cleveland in 2014

The Derrick Rose Situation (2008)

  • Chicago Bulls won with just 1.7% odds
  • Allowed them to draft Chicago native Derrick Rose
  • Revitalized the NBA's third-largest market
  • Rose became youngest MVP in league history

Other Notable Incidents

  • New Orleans winning Anthony Davis after NBA blocked Chris Paul trade
  • Dikembe Mutombo congratulating 76ers hours before 2016 lottery results

While many lottery results appear random, these coincidences have fueled ongoing speculation about the NBA Draft Lottery's integrity. Though no concrete evidence of manipulation exists, the pattern of favorable outcomes for major markets and compelling storylines continues to raise questions.

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