Genius Sports Stock Jumps 16% After Surprise Q3 Profit, Higher 2024 Forecast

Genius Sports Stock Jumps 16% After Surprise Q3 Profit, Higher 2024 Forecast

By Michael Harrison

November 19, 2024 at 08:26 PM

Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) demonstrated remarkable performance in Q3 2023, posting a surprise profit and improved financial outlook, leading to a 16% surge in stock price with four times the normal trading volume.

Third Quarter Performance:

  • Net income: $12.5 million
  • EBITDA: $26 million
  • Revenue: $120 million
  • Year-over-year improvement: $24.1 million (from -$11.6M in Q3 2022)

Genius Sports NYSE display sign

Genius Sports NYSE display sign

Key Business Developments:

  • Extended ESPN partnership for enhanced college sports, NBA, and WNBA data
  • New Reddit partnership for NFL-related data integration
  • Reduced operational and transaction expenses

2024 Updated Guidance:

  • Projected revenue: $511 million (24% YoY growth)
  • Expected adjusted EBITDA: $86 million (61% YoY growth)
  • Margin expansion: ~400 basis points
  • Anticipating positive cash flow for full year

Growth Drivers:

  • Increased live betting on NFL games
  • Rising demand for in-game wagering data
  • Growth in same-game parlays
  • Fourth consecutive year of 20%+ top-line growth

CFO Nicholas Taylor confirmed Q4 expectations of 38% revenue growth, 2.5x EBITDA growth, and 900 basis points of margin expansion, positioning the company for sustained profitability and market leadership in sports betting data services.

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