Coming off a successful 2-1 weekend, pushing our season record to 24-12 ATS, here are three compelling Week 12 college football picks backed by data and trends.

LSU (-4) at Florida

LSU has dominated this rivalry with five straight covers against Florida. The Tigers' dynamic offense, led by Garrett Nussmeier (second in SEC passing yards), faces a depleted Gators secondary that just lost starting cornerback Jason Marshall. Florida's defense allows 27 points per game and struggles especially against strong passing attacks. SP+ projects a 33-27 LSU victory, supporting the Tigers to win by multiple scores.

Nebraska (+7.5) at USC

The Cornhuskers bring elite defense to this matchup, ranking 18th nationally in scoring defense (19.1 PPG) and leading the Big 10 with a 49% opponent completion rate. Sharp money has moved the line from +9.5 to +7.5. Nebraska's 6-3 ATS conference record and 10-2 ATS mark as underdogs against unranked teams show their competitiveness. USC's struggles in one-score games (4-8 since last season) make the points valuable.

Utah (+11.5) at Colorado

Utah's defense ranks 9th in SP+ and 29th in scoring defense (17.3 PPG), particularly excelling against the pass (18th in yards allowed). This matches up well against Colorado's pass-heavy approach. SP+ projects just a 3.4-point margin, suggesting significant value with the double-digit spread. Utah has kept four of their last five losses within one possession, demonstrating their ability to compete in hostile environments.

Historical Performance: 24-12 ATS in 2024 (Last Week: 2-1)

Key betting trends and defensive metrics suggest these teams are well-positioned to cover their respective spreads in Week 12.

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