The Denver Nuggets have established themselves as a strong NBA team, with a 39-22 win-loss record and 31-28-1 against the spread (ATS) performance, covering 52.5% of their games as of March 4, 2025.

Home vs. Away Performance

• Home: 17-11 ATS (60.7% cover rate)
• Away: 14-16-1 ATS (46.7% cover rate)

Key Player Impact

• Nikola Jokić: Team's MVP significantly improves both winning and spread-covering probability
• Jamal Murray: Strong correlation between his performance and team's offensive efficiency

Notable Betting Trends:

• Higher cover rate when favored by less than 5 points
• Only 40% cover rate in back-to-back games
• Strong tendency for games to go over projected totals
• More reliable ATS performance at home

Betting Strategy Tips:

1. Focus on home games for spread betting
2. Monitor injury reports, especially for Jokić and Murray
3. Consider betting the over in high-scoring matchups
4. Avoid backing them ATS in back-to-back situations
5. Look for value when spread is under 5 points

The Nuggets' mixed ATS record suggests careful consideration of these factors when placing bets. Their strong home performance and dependence on key players should guide betting decisions.

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