Rostin Behnam, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced his resignation effective February 7, amid the agency's oversight of political betting markets.

Behnam, appointed by Trump in 2017 and elevated to chair by Biden in 2021, has been a vocal opponent of political betting platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi. He argued that election gambling "cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process" and transforms political convictions into financial calculations.

During his tenure, Behnam focused on strengthening financial markets and addressing regulatory gaps while supporting innovation. His departure comes as Trump, who favors deregulation, returns to Washington. The former president is expected to appoint a conservative chair who supports reduced federal oversight.

The resignation may benefit political betting platforms, as Behnam's replacement could take a more lenient stance on election wagering. This shift aligns with recent evidence suggesting betting markets have been more accurate than traditional polls in predicting election outcomes.

For instance, while polls showed a close race between Trump and Kamala Harris in the recent election, betting markets correctly predicted Trump's victory with 61% probability. Trump secured 312 Electoral College votes and won the popular vote 49.9%-48.4%, demonstrating the potential value of prediction markets in forecasting political outcomes.

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